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BRIEFS: THANK YOU, NUMBERS GAME AGAIN, VOLLEYBALL PLAYOFFS

by / Wednesday, 20 November 2013 / Published in News

With the football season coming to the end for some fans each week, I wanted to take this moment to thank everyone who played helped us out and played reporter for their school and updated me with scores.

I have always said two things about this website.

No. 1 (not necessarily in importance)…The updates we do on the YSN365.com facebook page is one of the strongest features of this website.  In my humble opinion I believe that the updates we do are as good, if not better, than any other sight.

No. 2…We can’t do it without you, we can’t do many things at this website on so many different levels without you.

No. 3…No. 1 + No. 2= No. 3

This was the first year that I had to juggle the KSRO Game of the Week and YSN updates and it was a bit of a challenge at times, following the game we were doing and following my phone going off with updates. 

After the games I couldn’t wait to get home to see the reaction of the facebook page and I was rarely disappointed.

So thank you…thank you…thank you.

Reminder alert:  The basketball season is right around the corner.   If you want to help with that, my email is also posted and the bottom of my articles or contact me on Facebook, either on the YSN page or search for my name.

NUMBERS GAME

I am a big numbers fans.   Well when it comes to sports, when I am doing my family budget, not so much.

In the preview from the weekend, I gave you some numbers to warn you not to look for many upsets in the first round of the NCS football playoffs.  It pretty much played out that way.  Going into this season a double digit seed had a winning percentage of 16.3% since the playoffs went to the sixteen team format in 2008.   They did a little better in Round One, going for a winning percentage of 17.3.  Division 4 saved the percentage by going 2-2.  The double seeds lost all seven games in Division 2 and lost five of six in both Division’s 1 and 3.

The prospect for picking an upset doesn’t go up much in round 2.

The No. 1 seed plays either No. 8 or No. 9 and has won 21 of 22 in the second round of the playoffs.  This stat bodes well for Casa Grande.

This doesn’t sound too good for the two local No. 9’s Windsor or Piner. But there is hope.  The only No. 1 seed to lose a second round game happened in a 2009 Division 4 game when Justin Siena defeated St. Mary’s 22-21.

Justin Siena was a No. 9 seed.

There are no local teams involved in a game involving the No. 2 seed, but if you hoping for an upset to open the bracket, it’s not likely.   The No. 2 seed plays No. 7 or No. 10 and has a 17-6 record.

The No. 3 seed, which is what Healdsburg is, meets either No. 6 or No. 11.   The No. 3 seed has a better record than the No. 2 at 20-4.   Healdsburg is meeting No. 11 Del Norte and the No. 3 vs. No. 11 matchup is even better news for Healdsburg.  The No. 3 seed is 6-0 vs. No. 11.

Of course it makes sense that No. 4 vs. No. 5 would be the closest.  No. 4 still holds a hefty 14-7 advantage.  That bodes well for Montgomery and Analy, but this comes with a couple of warnings.  

The first warning is things are turning around.  In the first three seasons the No. 4 seed went 10-1 against the No. 5.   The No. 5 has turned the tables a little bit by going 3-2 the last two seasons.

Here is another warning for Montgomery fans.  In each of the last two seasons in Division 2, the No. 5 seed has beaten No. 4.

The warning gets more ominous.  Montgomery is hosting Concord, who was the No. 5 seed last season and beat a No. 4.  Add to that, in each of the last two years Concord has come to Sonoma County and against these odds, has pulled an upset.

Last season as Concord defeated Casa Grande 14-6 and two years ago as a No. 7; they defeated No. 2 Rancho Cotate 24-14.

By the way the best matchup over the years for a potential upset has been No. 4 vs. No. 12.  There have been three games between those two seeds and the No. 12 has won two of them.  For there to be that matchup No. 12 has to upset No. 5 in Round One.

That matchup isn’t happening this season.

By the way, since Division 5 has only eight teams they are one week ahead of the rest of the NCS Playoff world and had the round the other divisions are having this weekend.  The only lower seed to win in that bracket was No. 5 Salesian defeating No. 4 St. Vincent.  No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 each won.

2009

Maybe the playoffs this week will be like the second round of 2009.  Since this format has started out of the fifteen playoffs from Division 1-4, four double digit seeds have made it to the semi-finals.   The reason for fifteen playoffs is because Division 5 has eight every year and Division 4 also had eight in the first year of this system in 2008.

Four of those double digits seeds to advance did it in 2009.  The other was last year when No. 10 San Marin defeated No. 15 Drake in Division 4.   That is one of two games that involved two double digit seeds.  The other was in 2009 when No. 11 Washington defeated No. 14 College Prep.

The Division 4 bracket was really crazy that weekend.   That was the bracket that No. 9 Justin Siena defeated No. 1 St. Mary’s. It was one of three games that the lowest seed one and they all won by one point.

The other two was No. 12 Valley Christian defeating No. 4 Middletown 30-29 and No. 7 Fort Bragg defeating No. 2 Ferndale 14-13.   Both those games went overtime.

The only game that went to form seeding wise was No. 3 Salesian defeating No. 6 St. Patrick-St. Vincent 20-14.   That game also went overtime.

Fort Bragg went onto to defeat Justin Siena 23-18 in the championship game.  As a No. 7 seed, Fort Bragg is the lowest to win a championship in this six year period. 

As a No. 9 Justin Siena isn’t the lowest seed to lose a championship game.   No. 10 did it twice, last year in Division 4 when San Marin lost to No. 1 Justin Siena.  The other time was in the 2009 Division 1 championship game when Pittsburg lost No. 1 you know who.

VOLLEYBALL

The Volleyball playoffs are moving to the semi-finals and with five local teams over four divisions.

The games are Wednesday Night at 7 pm.

Division 2—No. 3 Carondelet at No. 2 Maria Carrillo

Division 3No. 3 Sonoma Valley at No. 2 Bishop O’ Dowd

Division 4—No. 7 Justin Siena at No. 3 Healdsburg

Division 6—No. 5 CSD at No. 1 Anderson Valley

Division 6—No. 3 Mendocino at No. 2 Rincon Valley Christian

All matches start at 7 pm.  The Championship Matches are Saturday.

Maria Carrillo is trying to win its first section championship since 2008 and its 30th win of the season.

Sonoma Valley won its 30th game in the second round win over Analy.

Healdsburg is set up the same way as its football team.  They are a No. 3 seed and had a first round bye and defeated Arcata in the second round.

Anderson Valley has won three straight championships.  The last team to win a championship that wasn’t Anderson Valley in Division 6 was Rincon Valley Christian in 2009.  The Division 6 bracket started in 2008 which was won by Mendocino.

FOOTBALL WEEKEND

To help schedule your weekend:

Friday: Cardinal Newman at Analy (KSRO…6:30)

Friday: Concord at Montgomery

Friday: Salesian at Middletown

Friday: St. Mary’s at St. Helena (all Friday games start at 7 pm.

Saturday Noon:  Modesto at SRJC…noon

Saturday 1 pm: Piner at San Marin

Saturday 7 pm: Del Norte at Healdsburg

Saturday 7 pm: Windsor at Casa Grande

My email address is jacpasquini@comcast.net

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