FOOTBALL PREVIEW: League Races Can Take Many Turns
The NCL II/Bay Counties League race is the only one of the four leagues that we cover that has one undefeated team left in league play.
They could have some company after this week.
In the other three leagues, there are three undefeated teams left. In all three leagues two of the undefeated teams meet each other. In two of the three leagues that other undefeated team is an underdog according to the Cal Preps Projections.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Logan Francavilla, Montgomery…The running back yards per average dropped over a yard because Cardinal Newman contained him so well. Yet here he is. That is because the Cardinal’s didn’t contain enough. Francavilla controlled the game carrying the ball 42 times for 158 yards and three touchdowns in the Viking’s 31-25 overtime win over Cardinal Newman. The last three carries he went for 10 yards in the overtime to win the game.
In a 13 play 80 yard drive in the first half Francavilla carried the ball seven times for 20 yards.
In a 15 play 80 yard drive in the second half Francavilla carried the ball ten times for 47 yards.
In a 10 play 80 yard drive in the fourth quarter, Francavilla carried the ball seven times for 32 yards.
In a four play 10 yard drive in overtime, he carried the ball four times and scored the winning touchdown.
Francavilla earned the player of the week honors just on the carries alone.
NORTH BAY LEAGUE
No. 1 Casa Grande (5-0, 2-0) at No. 7 Maria Carrillo (3-2, 2-0)
KSRO 1350 GAME OF WEEK
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Casa Grande by 22
No. 4 Rancho Cotate (4-1, 2-0) at No. 3 Montgomery (4-1, 1-1)
YSN GAME OF THE WEEK
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Montgomery by 7
No. 6 Cardinal Newman (3-2, 1-1) at Santa Rosa (2-3, 0-2)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Cardinal Newman by 10
Windsor (2-3, 0-2) at Ukiah (2-3, 0-2)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Windsor by 28
Casa Grande and Maria Carrillo have played every season since 1998 and the series has gone pretty much as this game is predicted to. Casa Grande is 15-3 in the regular season and hasn’t lost to the Pumas since the 2005 playoffs.
Before realignment, the two teams were always set to play the second game of the season and most games have been pretty one sided.
When they have met in the playoffs the series hasn’t be so one sided with the teams splitting two games. Maria Carrillo won 28-18 in 2005 in what was a big upset of No. 7 beating a No. 2. That was the best season ever for the Pumas that ended in a 21-0 loss to Cardinal Newman in the NCS championship game and the last time Maria Carrillo has defeated Casa Grande, who has an eight game winning streak in the series including the other playoff game in 2009, which was a No. 15 vs. No. 2 game with Maria Carrillo just missing a mammoth upset 18-17.
Maria Carrillo has a three game winning streak and really there only bad game was the game two 35-7 loss to Benicia. That dropped them to 0-2 after opening up with a loss in a very winnable game against Analy.
Maria Carrillo running back Alex Netherda rushed for 190 yards in last week’s 21-14 win over Windsor.
Casa Grande has hit the 30 point mark for three straight weeks. In that time they have given up 31 points.
Rancho Cotate is the other undefeated team and they are the underdog at Montgomery. Like Maria Carrillo, like a few teams, they had one bad game and responded. But now here comes the heavy lifting. Montgomery, Casa Grande, Maria Carrillo and Cardinal Newman up next with all but the Maria Carrillo game on the road.
It shows how fast Montgomery has come that they are favored to beat Rancho Cotate. If Montgomery can pull this win off, it will give them more wins than they have had in four of the last five years.
One of the biggest questions might be how long Montgomery mentally celebrated its win over Cardinal Newman. They made a lifetime memory, so the guess is they celebrated for a while.
The other end of that lifetime memory was Cardinal Newman, who tries to bounce back against a Santa Rosa team, that after a promising start has lost three straight.
Cardinal Newman is close to facing unchartered territory, at least over the last few seasons. The most losses they have had in a season since 2002 is three.
Unless we have a wild, wacky and unexpected finish to the league race, neither Windsor nor Ukiah will win a league championship. That doesn’t mean they can’t make the playoffs.
Windsor is higher in the power rankings, but both teams are 2-3 overall, 0-2 in league and 0-2 against Division teams. Both are Division 2 teams and this is almost an elimination game. The loser would have to win three of four to finish the regular season to qualify for the playoffs.
SONOMA COUNTY LEAGUE
No. 2 Analy (5-1, 2-0) at No. 9 Healdsburg (4-2, 2-0)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Analy by 27
Petaluma (2-4, 0-2) at El Molino (2-3, 1-0)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Petaluma by 18
Sonoma Valley (3-2, 0-1) at Piner (3-3, 1-1)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Sonoma Valley by 3
Petaluma (2-4, 0-2) BYE
The 2-0 matchup is Analy meeting the No. 9 YSN365.com ranked team for the third straight week. One difference, besides the opponents, is they have moved from No. 3 to No. 2.
The first two No. 9 teams they dominated, outscoring them 97-20. They didn’t give up any of the 20 points until they had at least a 44-0 lead.
Last week they led Piner 47-0, before taking a 53-6 win in a game they averaged 16 yards a play. Kerr Johnson scored four touchdowns, two receiving and two punt returns.
Healdsburg has won three straight, scoring at least 40 in each game and giving up a total of 25.
The Hounds are coming off an impressive road win over Petaluma in which they scored the last four touchdowns in a 46-15 win.
It was big play night for Healdsburg, who had over 600 yards in total offense. Ramsey Wittke passed for 322 yards and four touchdowns, including one for 90 yards which gave Healdsburg a 20-12 first quarter lead.
Trystan Cleaver rushed for 201 yards which included a 45 yard touchdown and Jared Walker scored on a 65 yard run.
El Molino is the other undefeated team as they host Petaluma. The Lions have played one league game in which they rallied to defeat Elsie Allen 20-10. The game turned right before halftime with Elsie Allen leading 10-0, the Lions blocked a field goal that Louie Rampone returned for a score.
Sonoma Valley and Piner were the No. 9 teams before they met Analy. Now they try to continue good seasons.
A win for Piner will equal last season’s total of four which was the last time they finished over .500 since 2004.
Sonoma Valley has only played one league game. They played its last non-league game last week and survived a 21-14 win over winless Kennedy of Richmond
Both teams are in position for an NCS playoff spot, Sonoma Valley in Division 3 and Piner in Division 4.
Win or loss they both have windows to get into the NCS playoffs with later games against their own division.
No. 10 St. Helena (4-1, 2-0) at No. 6 Middletown (4-1, 2-0)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Middletown by 20
Lower Lake (2-3, 0-2) at Clear Lake (4-1, 2-0)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Clear Lake by 25
Kelseyville (3-2, 0-2) at Fort Bragg (2-3, 1-1)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Kelseyville by 4
Willits (0-5, 0-2) at Cloverdale (1-4, 1-1)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Cloverdale by 36
The big projection is more about how good Middletown has been. They haven’t given up a point since the fourth quarter of the opening game against Salesian, outscoring opponents 192-0.
This is nothing new for Middletown who has finished over .500 every season since 1998. Since then they have had a ten win season six times, including a 12-0 NCS championship season in 2001.
Middletown meets a St. Helena team that is on a roll. After three straight sub .500 seasons, they have had an 11 wins the last two years.
The Saints only loss this season is a home to Healdsburg 16-14. The week after that game, Middletown defeat Healdsburg 35-0. The 16 points is the most St. Helena has given up in a game.
St. Helena running back Sebastian Sequra has rushed for 400 yards in the last two games and has scored four touchdowns.
Sitting over in the corner and quietly sitting 2-0 is Clear Lake. They are favorites in its game against Lower Lake, whose two wins are against winless teams.
Clear Lake has met one team over .500.
NCL II/BAY FOOTBALL
Stellar Prep (1-4, 1-1) at No. 8 Calistoga (5-0, 2-0)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Calistoga by 37
CSD Fremont (3-2, 2-1) at Tomales (3-2, 0-1)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: CSD Fremont by 7
Emery (4-2, 1-1) at Upper Lake (0-5, 0-2)
CAL PREP PROJECTION: Emery by 42
Calistoga is back in action after a week off. When we last left them running back Dylan Alvarado was rewriting the school’s record book with a seven touchdown-407 yard game in a win over Emery.
Calistoga is the only undefeated team in NCL II/Bay League play and only Casa Grande is the only other team undefeated overall in the four area leagues. Of course on the field Middletown is also undefeated, the lone loss that forfeit to Salesian.
If Calistoga does slip, the race turns into a mess. Five of the other six teams have one league loss. Two of the teams, CSD Fremont and Tomales meet.
No. 13 SRJC (4-1) has the week off.
They open league play on Friday October 18th with a home game against No. 1 Butte. Butte moved to No. 1 because San Francisco lost to American River 34-13 to drop to No. 7.
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