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NORTH COAST SECTION FRIDAY PREVIEW

by / Thursday, 13 November 2014 / Published in News

NCS pLAYOFF PREVIEW copy

It is time to move on from analyzing the NCS playoffs to playing them.

Eighteen local teams have made the playoffs.

If you believe the Cal Preps projections, it will be a fairly good weekend.  They have the local teams going 11-7.

The projections also show that it helps being in a tight league race.  The NBL and NCL I, who each had co-champions are predicted to go a combined 9-3.

This is the Friday preview and remember all games start at 7 pm, not the normal 7:30 that most places start during the regular season.  Also remember there will be no JV game.

It isn’t a bad idea to remember also that the prices for the games are going up.

The Saturday preview will appear tomorrow.   The schedule for Saturday is on this page.

Also on this page is the preview for the SRJC Bear Cubs last regular season game of the year and it is an important one.

W jalen rolls

Windsor QB Jalen Roman has been effective both on the run and as a passer this season. He hopes to do both for Windsor in the NCS D2 Playoffs.

DIVISION 2

FRIDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 14 Dublin (4-6) at No. 3 Windsor (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Windsor by 14.

 

No. 13 American (7-3) at No. 4 Maria Carrillo (6-4)

KSRO 1350 AM/103.5 FM GAME OF THE WEEK

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Maria Carrillo by 15

 

FRIDAY (OTHER GAMES)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 16 Newark Memorial (4-6) at No. 1 Clayton Valley (10-0)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Clayton Valley by 62

 

No. 15 Hayward (5-5) at No. 2 Concord (9-1)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Concord by 38

Four of the six North Bay League teams that made the playoffs are in this bracket and they all get first round home games.  The schedule maker split the games in half with two on Friday and two on Saturday.

Windsor goes into the game with Dublin on a three game losing streak, but might feel they are due to win a close one.   Two of losses went down to the last play of the game and they were to decent teams with a combined record of 20-10.   The tight games could help them be playoff ready and are probably the reason they weren’t hurt in the power rankings or the seeding.  There wasn’t much of a chance, even when they were 7-0, of being a top two seed.  That always was reserved for Clayton Valley and Concord.

Dublin went 1-5 in the Diablo Foothill League.  League champion Campolindo is the No. 1 seed in the Division 3 playoffs.

After a 2-0 start, they lost to Montgomery 18-7.  That started a streak of five losses in six games.  Three of those were in a row by a combined seven points.   Those three teams have a combined record of 22-8.  In league play Windsor edged Montgomery 10-7.

Montgomery isn’t the only common opponent.   The other is Miramonte, who Windsor beat in September 49-27.  Last week Dublin lost to them 34-21.

Dublin has finished over .500 once since 2006.  That was in 2011, when as a No. 5 seed they went to the semi-finals and lost to Windsor 35-0. That was the year Windsor went 14-0 and won the NCS Division 2 championship.

Netherda

Carrillo RB Alex Netherda is capable of the leading the Pumas deep into NCS play with his offensive skills.

It was 2011 Maria Carrillo last made the playoffs.   They were a victim of that Windsor team in the second round 28-0.   The Pumas will finish over .500 for the first time since 2010.  They come into the game with American winning four of its last five.

American is out of Fremont and finished third in the Mission Valley League. The winner of that league is Kennedy of Fremont, the team that meets Rancho Cotate in Division 3.  American won six of seven before losing to Kennedy last week 41-19.

This is the fifth straight season American has been in the playoffs.   They haven’t been able to get out of the first round.  Last season they lost to Montgomery 27-0.

Kennedy has a pretty balanced offense.   Junior running back Trevon Jones needs 30 yards to go over the 1,000 mark.   He got off to a hot start hitting the 100 yard mark in three of the first four games, including a season high 224 yard game.   He hasn’t hit the 100 yard mark since.

Quarterback Jr Diala has gone the opposite way as he has been getting hot in the end.   He has thrown for four 200 yard games, three of them in the last four weeks.  In the last two weeks he has thrown seven of his sixteen touchdown passes.  He had his best passing game last week in the loss to Kennedy throwing for 270 yards.

 

SATURDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 12 Miramonte (3-7) at No. 5 Casa Grande (4-6)…Saturday

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Miramonte by 2

 

No.  9  Mt. Eden (7-2-1) at No. 8 Montgomery (4-6)…Saturday

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Montgomery by 4

 

OTHER GAMES

No. 10 Granada (2-8) at No. 7 Northgate (5-5)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Northgate by 6

 

No. 11 Pinole Valley (4-6) at No. 6 Tennyson (5-4-1)…1 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Tennyson by 10

DIVISION OVERVIEW

Tickets have already been printed for the Clayton Valley Charter-Concord game.

Well just joking, but the NCS would probably be disappointed if they didn’t play in the championship game.   You really can’t blame them.   The game has the anticipation on the scale of a Niner-Seahawk game.

 

DIVISION 3

FRIDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 7 Rancho Cotate (7-3) at No. 10 John F. Kennedy (Fremont) (10-0)

YSN365.COM GAME OF THE NIGHT

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Rancho Cotate by 6

 

No. 11 Petaluma (7-3) at No. 6 Alhambra (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Alhambra by 23

 

FRIDAY (OTHER GAMES)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 16 Ygnacio Valley (3-7) at No. 1 Campolindo (10-0)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Campolindo by 58

 

No. 12 Bishop O’ Dowd (5-5) at No. 5 Acalanes (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Acalanes by 2

If you are thinking the Rancho Cotate opponent John F. Kennedy, as a No. 10 seed  at 10-0, is a major mess-up by the committee, that may not be the case.

John F. Kennedy of Fremont is No. 10 in the Division 3 power rankings and the league they are in isn’t rated very high.   The league is mostly division 1 and 2 teams and has one other team over .500.   One team in the league is 5-5 with all five league wins.   That team is Moreau Catholic, who had one league loss, which was to Kennedy 44-14.   Moreau Catholic is traveling to Fort Bragg for a Division 4 game Saturday night.

Kennedy is the Analy version of this league, at least for this season.   This is the first time they have finished over.500 since 2003.   They haven’t been to a playoff game since 2008. But this season they have outscored opponents by an average of 49-14 and  league opponents 52-13.  That is where the Analy reference comes in.

Rancho Cotate is the third team this season that Kennedy will face that is over .500.  They are a running offense that averages over 300 yards a game and they have three running backs who have gained at least 700 yards and have combined for forty touchdowns.

With the scores of their games you take all those numbers with a grain of salt.  There was only one game that Kennedy was threatened into the fourth quarter.  That was against Washington, who is 2-8 on the season.  In that game Kennedy led 21-14 going into the fourth quarter, before rolling away to a 49-21 win.

Yes, Kennedy’s schedule is not going to scare anyone, but the way they won the games should.

The biggest talk about Rancho Cotate lately has been the NBL tie-breaking system and the lower than expected seeding.   The tie-breaking thing is really unexplainable.  The most common explanation for the seeding stems back to the opening game loss to Alhambra.  It has been said before that the committee loves head to head games.   Alhambra is a No. 6 seed, so Rancho Cotate had to be behind them, almost no matter what happened the rest of the season and Alhambra was pretty good.

Rancho Cotate ended the regular season second in the area of offense averaging over 42 points a game.

Leading receiver Chris Taylor-Yamanoha has modest numbers, but one of every four catches he has made has been for a touchdown.   Running back Carlos Franco leads the team in touchdowns with 14.

Rancho Cotate is annually a playoff team and has won a first round game in three of the last four seasons.

The game is in Fremont because of the league championship rule.

After turning some heads, Petaluma travels to the Alhambra team that beat Rancho Cotate.  Petaluma may have caused a shakeup in the Division 3 ratings.  That is after the Trojans gave Analy everything they could handle before dropping a 34-23 decision, which gave Analy a solo SCL championship.

The close game scored them some points and may have gotten them a couple of spots up in the seeding.

Senior running back Yusef Kawasami is leading an offense that has rushed for over 270 yards a game.  Kawasami has over 1,100 yards and eleven touchdowns.   He has gone over the 100 yard mark in four of the last five games including 183 last week against Analy.

Alhambra’s win over Rancho Cotate was part of a 5-0 start.  They ended 2-3, the wins were by a combined ten points over teams that have a combined six wins.

This is the first time since 2010 that Alhambra finished over .500 and made a playoff appearance.

 

SATURDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM

No. 13 El Cerrito (5-5) at No. 4 Analy (9-0)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Analy by 8

 

No. 9 Novato (7-3) at No. 8 Cardinal Newman (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Cardinal Newman by 18

 

SATURDAY (OTHER GAMES)

No. 14 Tamalpais (6-4) at No. 3 Marin Catholic (7-3)…1 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION: Marin Catholic by 34

 

No. 15 Mt. Diablo (3-7) at No. 2 Las Lomas (8-2)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Las Lomas by 50

DIVISION OVERVIEW:  There wasn’t much doubt that Campolindo would be No. 1 seed.  The rest of the bracket could have gone in many directions.  The Alhambra win over Rancho Cotate had a snowball effect.  Because of the head to head thing, Alhambra was put above Rancho Cotate.  Rancho Cotate beat Cardinal Newman to be put ahead of the Cardinals.  There should be some good games in this bracket, with Campolindo the team to beat.

 

DIVISION 4

FRIDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES START AT 7 PM

No. 12 Lower Lake (5-5) at No. 5 Del Norte (8-2)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Del Norte by 22

 

No. 14 Kelseyville (5-5) at No. 3 Justin-Siena (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Justin Siena by 35

 

FRIDAY (OUT OF AREA)…ALL GAMES START AT 7 PM

No.15 John F. Kennedy (Richmond) (5-5) at No. 2 Piedmont (10-0)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Piedmont by 35

Two NCL I .500 teams go on the road to take on league champions and it’s not supposed to go well for either team.  The two teams got to the .500 record different ways

Lower Lake, who travels to Del Norte, has been a consistent .500 team.   The biggest winning and losing streak of the season has been two.   The Trojans are led by senior quarterback and one time YSN365.com player of the week Isazah King.   King averages over 250 yards a game in total offense, including over 1,600 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing.

Del Norte is having a big season.   They will finish over .500 for the first time since 2011 and won its first Humboldt Del-Norte Big 5 championship since 2007.  They have finished over .500 in league play once since that league championship.

Del Norte ended the season with a six game winning streak.  Part of its 2-2 start was an opening game 33-18 win over Piner.

A win will assure Lower Lake of a .500 finish for the first time since 2010.   Since then, not counting this 5-5 season, they went 4-25-1.

This is the first Lower Lake playoff game since 2007.   Unofficially they are trying to win their first NCS game since 1991.

After a 4-1 start, Kelseyville, who travels to Napa to meet Justin Siena, has lost four of five to get to its .500 record.  They haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.   That season they made the second round and lost to Justin Siena.

Justin Siena ended in a three way tie for first in the Marin County League.   On the way they snapped 37 league game winning streak by Marin Catholic, when they beat them 3-0.   Later Justin Siena lost to Novato 22-0, which set up the three way tie for the top.

SATURDAY (LOCAL TEAMS)…ALL GAMES START AT 7 PM

No. 9 Moreau Catholic (5-5) at No. 8 Fort Bragg (8-2)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Fort Bragg by 13

 

No. 10 El Molino (6-4) at No. 7 McKinleyville (4-6)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  El Molino by 1

 

No. 11 Piner (5-5) at No. 6 Fortuna (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Fortuna by 11

 

SATURDAY (OUT OF AREA)

No. 13 Terra Linda (4-6) at No. 4 San Marin (7-3)…1 PM
CALPREPS PROJECTION:  San Marin by 34

No. 1 St. Mary’s (9-1) BYE

DIVISION OVERVIEW:  St. Mary’s is the favorite but not as one sided as favorites in other divisions.  This is probably the most balanced division of the five.

 

DIVISION 5

FRIDAY (LOCAL TEAMS…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM)

No. 14 South Fork (5-5) at No. 3 St. Helena (9-1)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  St. Helena by 46

 

FRIDAY (OUT OF AREA…ALL GAMES AT 7 PM)

No. 12 Valley Christian (4-6) at No. 5 Stellar Prep (7-3)

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Stellar Prep by 4

Because  so many schools in this Division don’t have lights,; five of the seven games are on Saturday.

A win by St. Helena over South Fork will make it four straight years with a playoff win.

In truth they are going for more than that.   In the last three seasons they are 4-3 in the playoffs.   The first two seasons they lost by three and six points.   Last year they lost to eventual NCS Division 4 champion St. Mary’s 24-7 in the second round.

The lone blemish on this season is a 35-20 loss to Fort Bragg.

Senior quarterback Jack Preston should go over the 1,300 yard passing mark and needs 40 yards to go over the 1,000 yard rushing mark.

South Fork is making its first playoff appearance since 2008.   They did get a win that season before bowing out in the second round.

South Fork started off the season with a 32-0 loss to Clear Lake.   The following week they beat Calistoga 8-7.   A 14-7 win over Ferndale to end the regular season made them eligible. The win snapped a fifteen game losing streak to Ferndale and also dropped Ferndale under .500 for the first time in at least a quarter of a century.

SATURDAY…(LOCAL TEAMS)

No. 8 Cloverdale at No. 9 St. Vincent…1 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Cloverdale by 12

 

No. 13 Tomales at No. 4 Middletown…7 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  Middletown by 35

 

SATURDAY…(OUT OF AREA)

No. 15 Ferndale (4-5) at No. 2 St. Bernard Catholic (9-1)…1 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  St. Bernard Catholic by 23

 

No. 10 CSD (Fremont) (8-2) at No. 7 Berean Christian (5-5)…1 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  CSD (Fremont) by 4

 

No. 11 St. Patrick/St. Vincent (3-7) at No. 6 John Swett (9-1)…7 PM

CALPREPS PROJECTION:  John Swett by 10

 

No. 1 Salesian (8-1) BYE

DIVISION OVERVIEW:  No matter where Salesian is seeded, people look at them.  This year they are No. 1.  Last season as a No. 5 seed, they won the championship.   It was their third in four seasons.  The first two were in Division 4.  Last season was the first time they were in Division 5.  The only season in the past four they didn’t win a section championship, St. Helena beat them 29-25 in the second round, so there is hope.

 

JC FOOTBALL

No. 10 SRJC (7-2, 2-2) at No. 14 Diablo Valley (6-3, 2-2)

This is the last regular season game for both teams.  This game has something at stake.  A win and SRJC might get a bowl game at home.

Both teams got to 2-2 the same way.  Well almost.

SRJC lost its first two league games and then won its next two.

Diablo Valley won its first two league games and then lost its next two.

If you know the league standings you know what order they played teams in.

If you go by scores to get to the 2-2 record, good luck.  They both won one game and lost one game more one sided than the other.

My email address is jacpasquini@comcast.net

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